Leader of the project: Dr. Jonq-Gong Chern
The major function of this group is to play the interface between
NWP and forecasters.
After the phases I and II of NWP projects, statistical
forecast become a new item in the
phase III of the NWP projecct. To assist
forecaster to quantitatively utilize the NWP
products is the major task to
perform. Also, verification of the forecast capability of
the NWP products
is another important work to feedback to the NWP development.
Subjects of Statistical Forecast:
Statistical forrecasting of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, 6- and 12-hour
probability of precipitation and daytime cloud coverage for each CWB observation station
by the method of Perfect-prog.
- Invading typhoon track and landing position in Taiwan area with providing forecast
guildance up to 6- to 12-hour leading.
- Statistical-dynamics typhoon track forecasting for the North-western Pacific region.
Structure of team work:
R & D: develop and design the statistical forecasting scheme.
- Data library: collect and provide data for other group.
- Application: quantitative and qulitative verifications for the statistical forecasts.
The prospective major task will focus on the development of MOS forecast system
Output Statistic). Also, the new forecast items and forecast guilding tools are required
to be developed to assist the forecaster making decision and to improve the forecast