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Ensemble Forecasting System


Leader of the project: Dr. Jen-Cheng Joseph Chang

Background:

One of the proposed tasks in the 5-year NWP Project Phase III is to extend the CWB's weather service to the 2nd-week forecasts. The progress of this task is further devided into 3 phases, which fully depends on the available resources from the Meteorolofical Information Center (MIC) of the CWB.

Phases of Ensemble Forecast System:

Phase I -- Economical (or Simple) Ensemble

Phase II -- Lagged-Average Forecasting (Hoffman & Kalnay 1983)

Phase III -- Optimal Initial Perturbations